Cem Karsan stops by The Business Brew to discuss the lens he views markets through.

Cem's viewpoint is unique compared to many guests on this program because he looks at how options dealers are positioned and considers what flows may result from that positioning.

Many guests on this show view equity valuation as the present value of the discounted cash flows available to equity.

While Cem would likely agree with that, he argues in this episode that an equity's valuation is really an output derived from the options market (which expresses probabilistic views of discounted cash flows).

We hope this episode gives you something to think about! Cem Karsan formed Kai Volatility Advisors after two decades of experience building industry-leading derivatives businesses.

From 1999 to 2002, he worked as a volatility trader as part of RBC Dominion Securities/ Derivatives Arbitrage Group.

From 2002 to 2005, he worked under renowned Wall St. investor John Mulheren at Bear Wagner Specialists, where Cem helped expand the firm's fledgling derivatives arbitrage business into a competitive force within the industry.

In 2005, Cem took a select group from the firm's proprietary trading arm and founded Precision Capital Management, specializing in equity index volatility arbitrage.

The firm became a significant SPX market maker reaching, at its peak, a high of ~13% of daily trading volume.*

In 2010, Cem divested his stake in Precision and fouded AEGEA Capital, the precursor to Kai Volatility Advisors. *Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Follow Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Learn more about Kai: https://www.kaivolatility.com/contact

Amanda Agati stops by The Business Brew to discuss her investment outlook going forward. Amanda is Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist for the PNC Financial Services Group. In this role, she oversees all investment strategy-related activities for the Institutional Asset Management, Wealth Management, and Hawthorn (ultra-high-net-worth) businesses. In addition, she leads the team that establishes overall strategic and tactical asset allocation guidance of client portfolios, manages the evolution of investment processes, provides thought leadership on key investment issues, and is the author of numerous publications. She also performs research and analytics that help drive the overall investment recommendations of the firm while also managing the firm’s asset allocation models. Amanda is a self described optimist.

Her opinions are nuanced and thoughtful.

This conversation touches on a number of topics and is quite balanced.

Michael Green stops by The Business Brew to discuss his inelastic market theory, the outlook for inflation, why the market might be too excited about rate normalization, and much more. Michael is a frequent contributor to Real Vision and has done some phenomenal interviews, which can be found on YouTube. He has been a student of markets and market structure, for nearly 30 years. His proprietary research into the shift from actively managed portfolios and investment funds to systematic passive investment strategies has been presented to the Federal Reserve, the BIS, the IMF and numerous other industry groups and associations. Michael joined Simplify in April 2021 after serving as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Logica Capital Advisers, LLC. Prior to Logica, Michael managed macro strategies at Thiel Macro, LLC, an investment firm that manages the personal capital of Peter Thiel.

Prior to Thiel, Michael founded Ice Farm Capital, a discretionary global macro hedge fund seeded by Soros Fund Management. From 2006-2014, Michael founded and managed the New York office of Canyon Capital Advisors, a $23B multi-strategy hedge fund based in Los Angeles, CA, where he established their global macro strategies, managing in excess of $5B of exposure across equity, credit, FX, commodity and derivative markets. In addition to his work as a market theorist and portfolio manager, Michael has been noted for his work as a public speaker and financial media participant.

He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.